This week the container read on the Red Sea shifts from routing announcements to hard traffic data, and the two do not point the same way. On volume, the return is real. Lloyd's List puts Bab el-Mandeb at 1,338 vessel transits in June, the busiest month since December 2023 and 39 percent above a year earlier, with large containership transits up 215 percent across the first half of 2026. Suez Canal traffic has climbed about 26 percent over the same window to its highest level since January 2024. That is the clearest sign yet that the corridor is being used again rather than merely talked about, though every figure still sits well under pre-crisis norms and the pickup only accelerated once renewed Hormuz disruption made the Red Sea look like the lesser risk. The carrier decisions underneath the data are the ones already on record, now showing up in the transit counts: the Gemini AE15 service testing Suez since 6 July after the Majestic Maersk cleared Bab el-Mandeb, and Maersk's solo MECL service moving back to the trans-Suez route, both kept expressly conditional on security holding. Against that firming traffic, the price signal is going the other way. Linerlytica reports that carriers have begun rolling back their North Europe rates, with first-half July spot failing to breach $6,000 per 40ft and the Gemini partners undercutting at around $4,800 against rivals asking $6,000 to $6,500. A round of general rate increases and peak-season surcharges scheduled for 15 July is the near-term test of how much real peak demand remains. For shippers the practical read is that capacity is genuinely trickling back to the Red Sea and the traffic data now backs it, while rates still rest on peak-season demand rather than on the canal, so a soft mid-July GRI would be a demand signal, not a Red Sea signal. Keep planning against both lanes, and watch whether the transit recovery survives the next security scare rather than pricing in a settled reopening.

The container read on the Red Sea this week is about price, not a single incident. From 15 July 2026 the Suez Canal Authority raises its transit surcharge on containerships to 12 percent, applied to any vessel that begins transit on or after that date. Containers get off lighter than most segments in the same revision: dry bulk carriers jump from 10 to 22 percent, general cargo and ro-ro rise to 26 percent, and laden crude tankers face 37 percent on top of the base toll, with passenger ships the only class left untouched. The timing matters because the increase lands while carriers are still deciding whether to bring services back off the Cape of Good Hope, so it lifts the toll cost of every Suez routing they might restore. What makes the move awkward to read is that it comes from the same authority that has spent months trying to lure carriers back. Cairo has offered incentives, including a 15 percent discount for large boxships of 130,000 GT and above, and Chairman Ossama Rabiee has personally visited ships to demonstrate readiness for full-size operations. A broad surcharge and a targeted discount for the largest vessels point in opposite directions, and the SCA itself says the fees rest on its assessment of market conditions and may be amended or cancelled. For shippers the underlying posture has not changed. Most Asia to Europe capacity still runs via the Cape, Xeneta's Peter Sand continues to judge a large-scale container return to the Red Sea unlikely in 2026 on security grounds, and the single live test remains the Gemini AE15 string that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd started routing through Suez on 6 July. Rates stay elevated on peak-season demand rather than the canal, with Freightos FBX Asia to North Europe last assessed near $4,900 per FEU in early July. Treat the 15 July surcharge as a cost input to fold into any Suez-versus-Cape comparison, and keep watching whether the AE15 test survives the next security scare rather than pricing in a lane-wide reopening.

The container story on the Red Sea has moved from watching an attack to watching a routing decision. On 6 July, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd told customers that their AE15 service, which links Asia with the Mediterranean and Europe, will shift from the Cape of Good Hope back to the trans-Suez route, beginning with the Triple-E boxship Majestic Maersk. This is the first expansion of the Gemini Cooperation's Suez network since the two carriers were forced to pull their ME11 and MECL services off the Red Sea in March, after an earlier February return proved short-lived. The AE15, calling at Qingdao, Kwangyang, Ningbo, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Said, Damietta, Colombo and Singapore, will once again use the fastest Asia to Europe corridor and shorten transit against the long route around southern Africa. The carriers were careful to bound the decision. They said it follows thorough assessments of the security situation, that they have no current plan to bring more Gemini services back to Suez or to rebuild their broader east-west network to pre-crisis routing, and that they are ready to send the AE15 back around the Cape if the picture worsens. That caution is not boilerplate. It sits directly against the 5 July attack on a cargo ship about 30 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, the first reported strike on a commercial vessel in the lane since the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, which no group has claimed and which is still under investigation. Gemini's own history frames the risk: its February ME11 return was reversed within weeks. For shippers the practical read is unchanged in substance but sharper in signal. Most capacity still runs via the Cape, one service is testing Suez again on a single Gemini string, and rates remain elevated on peak-season demand rather than the canal, with Freightos FBX Asia to North Europe last assessed near $4,900 per FEU in early July. Treat AE15 as a service-specific exception to monitor, not a lane-wide reopening, and watch whether it holds through the next security scare rather than pricing in a permanent Suez return.

The Red Sea produced its first reported attack on a commercial ship since the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire. On 5 July, about 30 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah in Yemen, a cargo ship reported that a skiff approached and opened fire. The ship's armed guards returned fire, and the skiff pulled back to a larger vessel roughly two nautical miles away that had its AIS transponder switched off. The ship and its crew were reported safe, and UKMTO advised vessels to transit with caution. No group has claimed the attack and the identity of the attackers is not confirmed, so this is a warning signal rather than a confirmed return of the Houthi campaign. It still matters for container shipping because it breaks the calm that has held on the lane since the ceasefire and tests the assumption behind the slow, service-specific return to Suez. The context is a standing threat: on 8 June the Houthis declared a ban on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea and kept any broader action tied to Gaza and the ongoing Iran conflict. For now the routing picture is unchanged. Most lines still send Asia to Europe cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 14 days, and no major carrier has announced a change to its Red Sea plans in response to this incident. Rates stay high on peak-season demand rather than the canal, with Freightos FBX Asia to North Europe last assessed near $4,900 per FEU on 2 July. The practical message for shippers holds: plan around Cape transit times and a firm rate environment, treat any Suez routing as a per-service exception, and watch whether this attack is a one-off or the start of a pattern before reading it as a shift in the lane.

The Suez corridor is recovering by inches. About 35 cargo vessels transited the canal in the week to 28 June, and Maersk has now run three westbound sailings on its Middle East Container Line through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait since 13 June. That is movement, but it is not a market shift. Most lines still route Asia to Europe cargo around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 10 to 14 days, and the carriers testing the canal frame it as service-specific rather than a broad reopening. The dominant force on rates right now is peak season, not routing. Freightos FBX shows Asia to North Europe at $4,900 per FEU, up 70 percent since mid-May, and Asia to Mediterranean at $6,500 per FEU, up 85 percent, both now above their 2025 peak-season highs. An early frontloading rush, port congestion at major hubs, and July general rate increases are all pushing prices up. The security picture stays the deciding factor for the lane. The Houthis have not hit a commercial ship since the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, yet they keep their threat tied to Gaza and the wider Iran conflict, which is enough to hold most carriers off the Red Sea. That caution was reinforced over the weekend, when Iranian strikes near the Strait of Hormuz hit several vessels, including a container ship that was not in the designated Iranian transit lane, and the IMO paused its phased Hormuz evacuation in response. For shippers the practical message holds: plan around Cape transit times and a rising rate environment, treat any Suez routing as a per-service exception, and watch the Iran track closely because it now shapes container risk on both chokepoints.

The Suez corridor is reopening in slow motion. Maersk, among the more risk-averse carriers, has now run its first container voyages back through the canal since early March, a notable signal because it puts the line ahead of its Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, which is holding its long-haul services on the Cape of Good Hope. Ocean Network Express remains cautious as well, with all of them stressing that the security picture, not commercial pressure, will set the pace of any wider return. Linerlytica reads the same data and expects only a gradual, selective recovery, with canal volumes approaching normal late in 2026 rather than now. Rates are firming in the meantime. Freightos FBX shows Asia to North Europe at $2,707 per FEU and Asia to Mediterranean at $3,850 per FEU, both up double digits, and carriers have already announced July increases of up to $2,000 per FEU. The geopolitical backdrop stays unsettled. The Houthis continue to designate Israeli-linked vessels as legitimate targets, and while a reported US-Iran interim deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within roughly a month, that easing has not yet pulled container traffic back into the Red Sea at scale. For shippers, the practical message is unchanged: plan around Cape transit times and elevated rates, and treat any Suez routing as service-specific rather than a market-wide shift.

The Red Sea return stayed frozen in the last week of June 2026 as the wider Gulf picture turned volatile again. After the US and Iran signed a memorandum on 16 to 17 June to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls for at least 60 days, Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the strait shut over 20 to 22 June, citing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and a breakdown in the ceasefire. US Central Command disputed the move, reporting 55 merchant transits on Saturday and describing safe passage as intact, while the US energy secretary said on 24 June that Washington had removed Iran's ability to close the waterway. The ship-tracking picture sat between the two claims: Windward recorded Hormuz transits dropping to 12 vessels on Sunday from 35 the day before, with five of eight inbound ships sailing dark, a pattern it likened to the late-blockade period rather than a functioning open strait. For container shipping the practical read is unchanged but reinforced. The main box loops transit Bab-el-Mandeb, not Hormuz, so the direct effect on container routing is limited, yet the renewed instability keeps war risk premiums elevated and pushes carriers to stay cautious on any Suez return. Maersk continues a measured, structural return on selected services, while CMA CGM keeps its Asia–Europe loops around the Cape of Good Hope. Suez container transits remain roughly 60% below the pre-crisis baseline and the Cape detour still adds about 10 to 14 days on Asia–Europe, so shippers continue to manage two parallel networks with different transit times and reliability. War risk underwriters are holding a wait-and-see line and premiums stay high. Asia–North Europe long-term rates near USD 2,010 per FEU have eased from the crisis peak but remain anchored to the longer routing most capacity still follows, and Freightos cautions that a real shift back toward Suez would first create congestion and upward spot pressure as patterns readjust. The MARAD advisory 2026-006 covering the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin runs to 22 September 2026. A full, stable Suez return looks unlikely while the Hormuz and wider ceasefire picture stays this fragile.

The widely forecast return of container shipping to the Red Sea has lost momentum in June 2026. After early-year moves by Maersk and CMA CGM to test Suez routings, the two largest carriers have now diverged. Maersk is maintaining a measured, structural return on selected Asia–Mediterranean and Asia–Europe services, while CMA CGM has reversed its decision and sent the affected loops back around the Cape of Good Hope. The trigger is a fresh round of Houthi attacks: since 5 June the group has targeted at least six vessels, selecting ships by their operators' links to Israeli ports rather than by flag. Confirmed damage to the bulk carrier Verbena in the Gulf of Aden on 13 June underlined that the threat remains live across the wider Bab-el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden corridor. The MARAD advisory 2026-006 covering the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin now runs to 22 September 2026. For container shippers the practical effect is a fractured network. Suez transits stay near 60% below the pre-crisis baseline, the Cape detour still adds roughly 10 to 14 days on Asia–Europe, and the carrier split forces shippers to manage two routing patterns with different reliability and cost profiles at once. Asia–North Europe long-term rates near USD 2,010 per FEU have eased from the crisis peak but remain anchored to the longer routing that the bulk of capacity still follows. The geopolitical backdrop, including wider regional tension around the Strait of Hormuz, keeps risk premiums and insurance terms elevated and makes a full, stable Suez return unlikely in the near term.

The sharpest signal for shippers this week sits in the rate sheet, not the threat board. Drewry's World Container Index has climbed to $3,969 per 40ft container, a 12% weekly gain that marks an 18-month high, and the Asia-Europe lane is leading it: Shanghai-Rotterdam jumped 15% to $4,342 and Shanghai-Genoa rose 12% to $5,756. The driver is the same structural squeeze that has defined the crisis. With most eastbound capacity still steaming around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Bab el-Mandeb, a large share of the global fleet stays tied up in extra sea miles, and that scarcity is now meeting an early peak season as cargo is pulled forward ahead of the 1 July bunker adjustment and expected US tariff changes. Maersk's revised peak season surcharge of $1,500 per 40ft box from Far East Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean, effective 7 July, points to further upward pressure rather than relief. The geopolitical shift this week landed on the Gulf side. A US-Iran interim agreement signed on 15 June reopened the Strait of Hormuz with 60 days of toll-free commercial transit, and Kpler tracked supertankers resuming passage within days, easing the perceived risk that had hung over the strait and lifting overall shipping sentiment. For the container market through Bab el-Mandeb, however, that deal changes little. The Houthi ban on Israel-linked navigation and the first kinetic strikes since September 2025, two vessels hit in the Gulf of Aden on 8-9 June, remain the binding constraint on the southern route, and Maersk is holding its Gulf restrictions and emergency surcharges in place despite the Hormuz reopening. Suez throughput stays roughly 60% below pre-crisis levels. For forwarders and shippers the message is consistent: a calmer Hormuz does not reopen the Red Sea, the Cape premium stays embedded in pricing, and elevated, volatile rates should be planned for into the second half of 2026.

Two weeks of escalation have left the Red Sea corridor in a familiar but tense position: security risk is back on the table, yet the sharpest near-term signal for shippers is in the rate sheet. Drewry's World Container Index has climbed to $3,969/feu, a 12% weekly jump that puts spot pricing within reach of $4,000 and well above pre-crisis norms. The driver is not a fresh attack but structure plus timing. With most Asia-Europe services still steaming around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Bab el-Mandeb, a large slice of global fleet capacity stays tied up in extra sea miles, and that scarcity has met an early peak season as cargo is pulled forward ahead of the 1 July bunker adjustment, anticipated US tariff moves and World Cup volumes. The security picture explains why the detour persists. A week after the Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli navigation and struck two commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden, their first kinetic enforcement since September 2025, the targeting logic has widened to any operator that has called at Israeli ports. That keeps a broad pool of tonnage exposed and the wider Iran-Israel truce, reached in April, fragile after renewed missile exchanges from 7 June. Carriers are responding in different directions, with Maersk pulling services back to the Cape while CMA CGM presses ahead with a Q2 Suez return, so there is no single industry read on the strait. For forwarders and shippers the message is consistent: expect the Red Sea premium to stay embedded in pricing, and plan for elevated, volatile rates into the second half of 2026.

After eight months of relative calm, the Red Sea corridor has slipped back into crisis. On 8 June, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, and within hours the threat turned kinetic: two commercial vessels were struck in the Gulf of Aden on 8-9 June, the first attacks on merchant shipping since the Minervagracht in late September 2025. The targeting logic has hardened in a way that matters to every forwarder and carrier. Neither ship was Israeli-flagged; both were hit because their operators had recently called at Israeli ports, meaning exposure now follows corporate port-call history rather than flag state alone. For container lines that had cautiously begun testing Suez routings, the message landed quickly. Maersk has again pulled some services back around the Cape of Good Hope, citing constraints in the operating environment after talking to its security partners, while CMA CGM holds to its more aggressive Q2 return and Hapag-Lloyd waits on the sidelines. The result is a fragmented industry with no shared read on Bab el-Mandeb. For now, the broader market shock is muted because traffic through the strait is already thin, around half its pre-crisis level, and current rate strength is driven mainly by an early peak season rather than the renewed attacks. The strategic picture, though, has clearly deteriorated: the resumption of strikes and the reversal of carrier returns suggest the Cape detour, and the capacity it absorbs, will persist well into the second half of 2026.

The Red Sea corridor has slipped back into full crisis mode. The 10 June small-boat attack near Bab el-Mandeb, in which embarked security teams exchanged fire with six armed assailants before the craft broke away, is the clearest signal yet that the Houthi threat to merchant shipping is active again, not rhetorical. With the group now openly aligned with Tehran in the wider conflict and a declared ban on 'enemy navigation', insurers and operators are treating the southern Red Sea as a no-go area for most container tonnage. For shippers, the practical consequence is that the Cape of Good Hope routing remains the default for Asia-Europe and Asia-Med services, adding 10 to 14 days per voyage and absorbing significant capacity. That capacity squeeze, combined with importers front-loading peak-season cargo, is driving spot rates sharply higher: the Shanghai-Rotterdam benchmark jumped 25% in a week to USD 3,579 per FEU, and carriers are layering on peak season surcharges of up to USD 1,000 per FEU. The simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz compounds the disruption, cutting Gulf liner services off from mainline networks and forcing cargo onto feeder and overland alternatives. Industry consensus has shifted: a meaningful container return to the Suez route in 2026 is now off the table, and forwarders should plan networks, transit times and budgets around the Cape routing well into 2027.

The cautious return of container shipping to the Red Sea has stalled. On 8 June the Houthis announced a partial naval blockade amounting to a 'complete ban' on Israeli-linked vessels through the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb, effective immediately, after Israel resumed strikes on Iran. A Houthi source told Reuters the ban is 'a first step' and that the movement could move to stop any ship bound for Israel if escalation continues. For box carriers, the timing erases the recovery narrative that had built up since late 2025, when CMA CGM ran ultra-large vessels back through Suez and Maersk completed its first transit in two years under a Suez Canal Authority partnership. That tentative reopening had already cracked: following the 28 February resumption of Houthi attacks, Maersk diverted selected ME11 and MECL sailings back around the Cape of Good Hope, and CMA CGM reverted its FAL services to the Cape, citing the fragile security environment. With this latest declaration, the default for the major networks stays Cape routing, keeping roughly 1.75 million TEU, some 5-6% of the global fleet, tied up on the long way round and leaving Suez container throughput far below pre-crisis levels. The practical read for shippers and forwarders: do not plan on a Suez switch this quarter. Asia-North Europe spot rates remain elevated at 25-40% above a no-crisis baseline, transit times stay stretched by the Cape detour, and any large-scale capacity release that a real return would unlock is again pushed out. The wider Israel-Iran exchange that triggered the announcement keeps Red Sea risk hostage to a conflict the shipping market does not control.

The Red Sea crisis is no longer primarily a story of attacks — it is now a story of absorbed capacity and exploding freight rates. With most container lines still routing Asia-Europe services around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Bab el-Mandeb risk, an estimated full sailing's worth of extra steaming continues to soak up global fleet capacity. That structural tightness has collided with an unusually early peak season, sending spot rates sharply higher across nearly every major trade. The SCFI's jump to a two-year high and the Drewry WCI's 23% weekly leap underline how quickly the supply-demand balance has tilted in carriers' favour. As analyst Lars Jensen frames it, the unresolved Hormuz situation is precisely what keeps the Red Sea crisis alive: as long as the security picture in the wider Middle East remains unstable, the Cape detour stays in place and capacity stays scarce. Demand-side pressures are amplifying the squeeze, with shippers front-loading cargo ahead of expected July US tariff changes, World Cup-related volumes and pre-promotion restocking. The security calm since late September 2025 has not been enough to coax a structural return — both Maersk and CMA CGM tested Suez routings earlier this year only to revert key services to the Cape when regional tensions flared. For forwarders and shippers, the takeaway is clear: the Red Sea premium is now showing up squarely in the rate sheet, and with carriers holding capacity discipline into an early peak, elevated pricing looks set to persist through the coming months.

Eight months without a Houthi strike has not refilled the Suez Canal. As of early June 2026, traffic sits roughly 60% below 2023 levels, and container shipping is the laggard segment of all — Q4-2025 box transits were down 86%, because carriers are still unwilling to expose containerised cargo to residual Bab el-Mandeb risk. The story since Update #08 is a slow, uneven thaw rather than a return. Maersk has crossed a real line by making its MECL service a permanent Suez loop after the MAERSK DENVER test voyage, the first structural Asia-Europe reversal back through the canal after 14 months on the Cape. CMA CGM, by contrast, pulled back a similar plan and keeps most strings routing around the Cape, using the canal only opportunistically. The economics are double-edged: a full fleet return would release an estimated 6-8% of global capacity and pressure freight rates downward, yet Linerlytica's data show early Suez test voyages taking about 29 days Salalah-to-Newark — no quicker than a Cape rotation — so the headline time advantage has yet to materialise. War-risk premiums have fallen to about 0.2% of hull value, their lowest since late 2023, confirming that the brake on normalisation is carrier confidence, not cost. For shippers, the practical read is unchanged: plan capacity and schedules around continued Cape-heavy routing through the summer, treat the Suez option as carrier- and service-specific, and watch the Gaza ceasefire and Iran track as the real triggers for either a faster return or a renewed Bab el-Mandeb shutdown.

The binding constraint for Asia–Europe container shipping has not changed: it is Bab el-Mandeb risk and carrier nerve, not Hormuz. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis edges toward resolution — Washington announced an end to the naval blockade on May 29 and a reopening deal that is 'largely negotiated' — the southern gateway to the Suez Canal is moving the other way. Two senior Houthi officials have signalled a resumption of missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels in response to US–Israeli strikes on Iran, ending roughly three and a half months of relative calm that had begun in mid-November 2025. BIMCO has warned that ships with US or Israeli ownership, chartering or trading links face the greatest exposure, while cautioning that 'neutral' tonnage was struck in earlier waves too; underwriters are expected to lift war-risk premiums sharply on any confirmed kinetic incident. Against that backdrop, the major lines are holding Cape of Good Hope routing as the default for Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast services, and Suez containership traffic remains roughly 60% below pre-crisis levels. The market impact is now compounding with seasonality: continued diversions and longer lead times, plus frontloading ahead of July's higher bunker adjustment factors, have pulled peak season forward. Asia–N. Europe spot rates have climbed about $300/FEU since the end of April to around $2,900/FEU — back to their war-time high — while Asia–Mediterranean rates jumped 20% in a single week to nearly $4,400/FEU. Carriers are layering June GRIs and PSSs of $600 to over $1,000/FEU on Asia–Europe, with comparable ~$2,000/FEU peak-season surcharges on the transpacific. Even if Hormuz reopens cleanly, expect carriers to stay cautious on Gulf calls — and to keep Asia–Europe boxes on the long way round until the Red Sea security picture genuinely stabilises.

The May tape tells a clear story: the Red Sea is not reopening, and Asia-Europe spot rates are climbing back to their wartime highs. Asia - N. Europe is back near $2,900/FEU and Asia - Mediterranean has popped 20% in a single week to roughly $4,400/FEU, surpassing the March peak. Carriers have layered $600-$1,000/FEU in GRIs and PSSs into mid-June, and shippers are frontloading ahead of July BAF adjustments - a classic crisis-era pattern, not a normalising market. The carrier signal matches the rate signal. CMA CGM has reversed three Asia - Europe loops back to the Cape, and Maersk's hesitant Suez restart has stalled. Suez Canal containership traffic remains at about 141 transits per month against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80 per week, with overall Suez throughput still ~60% below normal more than 100 days after the last Houthi attack. The Suez Canal Authority's 15% transit-fee discount has not moved the needle. Geopolitics is the binding constraint. After US-Israeli strikes on Iran, senior Houthi officials have signalled an imminent return to maritime attacks, and the deputy information minister continues to flag full Bab el-Mandeb closure as an option on the table. BIMCO is warning that war-risk premiums will jump sharply on the first confirmed strike. For Asia-Europe shippers, the planning assumption for Q3 should remain Cape routings, longer lead times, and elevated FAK levels - any narrative of normalisation looks premature.

Three weeks on from Update #08, the picture for Asia–Europe container shipping has not improved — and in some ways has hardened. Maersk's and CMA CGM's reversals back to the Cape of Good Hope, announced in late April and early May, are still in force, and no major liner has stepped forward to refill the gap. What looked like a hesitant return to Suez in early 2026 has now become a multi-month pause, and the Cape route is quietly becoming the operational default for the second half of the year. The binding constraint is no longer a single event — it is the cumulative weight of Houthi rhetoric, fragile Iran ceasefire, war-risk insurance frictions, and the operational complexity of switching networks twice in eight weeks. Suez Canal containership transits remain at roughly a third of pre-crisis levels, Bab el-Mandeb crossings are 52% below late-2023 norms, and Lloyd's List Intelligence continues to track east-to-west canal share around 18.7%. War risk underwriters are now writing Persian Gulf and Red Sea cover on a single-voyage basis only, with insurers flagging gaps in cargo war wordings that may not survive a courtroom test. For shippers and forwarders, the practical implication is clear: plan for Cape transit times (+up to 25 days) and elevated risk premiums through Q3 at minimum, and treat any optimistic carrier reopening announcement with caution until it has held for a full sailing cycle. The Houthis have not staged a confirmed attack on a commercial vessel in May, but deputy information minister Mohammed Mansour has reiterated that closing Bab el-Mandeb remains 'among our options' — and that conditional threat is now itself the market reality.

Seventeen days after the Cape reversal call (Update #08), the container market is no longer waiting for a Suez verdict — it is pricing the Cape routing as the working baseline and pulling demand forward to live with it. Freightos' 19 May read confirms Asia–Europe peak season is arriving early: European importers want goods on the water in time for the October Golden Week shutdown, and a Cape rotation adds enough days to that math to justify booking now rather than in July. Spot rates have responded — Asia–Mediterranean jumped 15% in a single week to $3,850/FEU with daily fixes above $4,000, and Asia–North Europe added 11% to $2,707/FEU. On the security side, the picture has not improved enough to change the calculus: Maersk and CMA CGM are still routing selected services around the Cape, the merchant vessel attack off Yemen reminded the market that kinetic risk did not vanish with the late-2025 lull, and Houthi rhetoric remains tied to the US–Israel–Iran trajectory rather than to any independent de-escalation. Suez containership volumes are still ~60% below pre-crisis, and the gap is no longer narrowing. For shippers and forwarders, the operational message is consistent with our prior updates but sharper now: plan capacity, surcharges and transit time against a Cape default through at least Q3, and treat any Bab el-Mandeb 're-opening' headlines as carrier-specific rather than corridor-wide.

Eight months after the Gaza ceasefire and three months after the first hesitant Suez restarts, the Red Sea corridor has not reopened in any meaningful sense for container shipping. Bab el-Mandeb transits sit roughly 45% below 2023 levels, Suez Canal containership traffic remains about 60% below pre-crisis volumes, and the canal's share of east-west flows has flat-lined near 18.7% versus the ~80% baseline. Within days of resuming limited Asia-Europe loops via Suez, both Maersk (ME11, MECL) and CMA CGM (three Far East-Europe strings) have re-diverted around the Cape, citing 'unforeseen constraints' and a 'complex and uncertain international context'. The Houthi leadership has explicitly kept Bab el-Mandeb closure on the table, and BIMCO continues to warn that war-risk premiums would re-spike sharply on any confirmed attack on a Western- or Israeli-linked box ship. On the commercial side, the picture is split: Asia-Europe spot rates have eased back to roughly pre-war levels (Shanghai-Rotterdam at $2,127/FEU, Shanghai-Genoa at $3,039/FEU), but carriers are pricing the risk back in through emergency surcharges — MSC raised its Asia-USEC bunker surcharge to $644/container and CMA CGM launched a $2,000 PSS from 1 May. The Hormuz spillover compounds the caution: Iran's seizure of the Ocean Koi on 8 May, the small-craft attack on a bulk carrier off the Iranian coast on 3 May, and Tehran's new 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' requiring pre-clearance for Hormuz transits have together made carriers even less willing to add Red Sea exposure on top of an already fragile Gulf risk picture. The bottom line for shippers: the binding constraint on Asia-Europe is still Bab el-Mandeb risk and carrier nerve, not Hormuz. Plan around extended Cape routings, +18-25 days of transit, and surcharge-driven all-in rate increases through at least the early peak season; the Suez Canal Authority's 'normalisation in H2 2026' guidance now looks optimistic.

Twelve days after CMA CGM and Maersk reversed their tentative Red Sea restarts, the market reaction is now visible in the spot indices. Freightos's latest FBX print shows Asia-North Europe up 11% week-on-week to $2,707/FEU and Asia-Mediterranean up 15% to $3,850/FEU, as Cape of Good Hope rerouting absorbs effective capacity and pulls fronthaul pricing higher. Xeneta's May update describes Transpacific spot rates plateauing above pre-conflict levels, while Asia-Europe is moving in the opposite direction — back upward — as carriers lock in the longer route. The April 25 U.S.-Houthi ceasefire is technically holding, with no confirmed strikes on commercial vessels since the early-year escalation, but Suez containership traffic remains stuck at roughly 30-60% of pre-2023 levels and the Suez Canal Authority has already lifted its 15% transit fee discount for large boxships as flows fail to recover. Linerlytica counts about 170 containerships (~450,000 TEU, around 1.4% of the global fleet) still operating inside the Persian Gulf, underscoring that Hormuz-side risk continues to inform Red Sea routing decisions — these are linked, not separate, exposure pools. Politically, the Houthi deputy information minister again named Bab el-Mandeb closure as 'among our options' should the Gaza ceasefire collapse or the Iran nuclear file deteriorate; Polymarket implied probability of effective closure by May 31 sits at only ~11%, but the tail risk is what is keeping underwriters and carriers in Cape mode. The Hapag-Lloyd/Maersk Gemini IMX service (India-Middle East-Mediterranean) continues to transit Suez under naval escort, but planned migration of the larger SE1/SE3 Asia-Europe loops is on hold. Analyst consensus — Peter Sand at Xeneta, Linerlytica's bulletin — is converging on the view that a large-scale Asia-Europe return to the Red Sea in 2026 is no longer realistic; Cape routing should be planned as the base case through 2027. For shippers, the binding action items are: re-baseline transit times at Cape duration (+10-25 days versus Suez), expect continued spot volatility on the fronthaul, and treat any Suez restart announcements as reversible until at least two consecutive quarters of stable transit data accumulate.

Ten days on from Update #08, the Red Sea picture has shifted from 'reversal' to 'reluctant rebuild'. The lead story is MSC's new Europe-Red Sea-Middle East Express, which sailed for the first time from Antwerp on 10 May and routes 14,000-16,000 TEU ships through Suez into Jeddah, King Abdullah Port and Aqaba before feedering cargo into the Gulf overland. That is a structural bet: instead of pushing boxes through Hormuz, MSC is treating the Saudi Red Sea coast as a gateway and using the land bridge to reach Gulf markets. CU Lines followed with a smaller Red Sea service a day later. Both moves signal that at least part of the market sees the Suez corridor as workable again under coordinated transit arrangements. The counter-signal is just as clear. CMA CGM is still keeping selected Asia-Europe strings on the Cape, and the broader carrier community has not unwound the diversion - Bab el-Mandeb traffic is running ~45% below 2023, and 5-7% of global TEU capacity is still locked up on the longer route. Asia-Europe rates remain 25-40% above what a normal trade lane would produce. The security calculus underneath has not actually improved. No commercial ship has been hit by the Houthis in 2026, but the group has been explicit that this pause is conditional on Gaza and on the Iran picture, and Linerlytica reports growing concern that the Houthis are positioning to formalise control of the strait - potentially through a toll regime. For shippers and forwarders, the practical implication is a two-track market: Suez routings are real and bookable again, but they price and operate as a premium product with a kill-switch attached, while Cape continues to be the default for risk-averse trades.

Cairo has moved first. With container traffic through the Suez stuck around one-third of pre-crisis volumes, the Suez Canal Authority announced a 15% transit-fee discount for large boxships from 15 May for the next 90 days — a tacit admission that the carriers will not come back on security narrative alone and that price has to do some of the work. The targeted tonnage band (>=130,000 NT) covers the ultra-large Asia-Europe units that drive the canal's revenue base; this is squarely a containership play, not a fleet-wide gesture. Yet the operational picture argues against any quick rebound. Maersk and CMA CGM, the two majors that had cautiously restarted limited Suez transits this spring, have already reversed selected Asia-Europe strings back via the Cape of Good Hope, citing 'unforeseen constraints' and a 'complex and uncertain international context.' Bab el-Mandeb container flow remains roughly 45% below 2023, and the Cape detour continues to soak up an estimated 2.5m TEU of global capacity, which is doing more for freight rate support than carrier discipline. Asia-North Europe spot rates jumped 10% last week to $2,850/FEU on tightening capacity from blanked sailings, while Mediterranean prices slipped 5% — a split that shows demand is the binding variable, not routing. Politically, nothing has been resolved: the US-Houthi ceasefire holds in name, but the Houthi leadership continues to flag Bab el-Mandeb closure as 'among our options,' Israel-linked tonnage is still exposed, and the 6 May projectile strike on the CMA CGM 'San Antonio' near Hormuz reminded the market that the wider region remains kinetic. For shippers, the implication is concrete: Suez transit will get cheaper for those who take it, but the structural Cape premium on schedules, fuel, and risk insurance is not going away in Q2.

The container market entered mid-July at full stretch. July 1 general rate increases and peak-season surcharges stuck across the major east-west trades, pushing spot rates up another roughly $1,000/FEU and taking the transpacific climb past $3,000/FEU since the end of May. Freightos data puts Asia-US West Coast at about $6,200/FEU, up 120% since mid-May, and Asia-US East Coast near $8,000/FEU, up 85% in six weeks; Asia-North Europe reached about $5,400/FEU and Asia-Mediterranean cleared $7,000/FEU. Notably, falling bunker prices are not feeding through to rates - demand, not cost, is setting the market. The driver is capacity that looks ample on paper but is being absorbed by congestion. Linerlytica and Loadstar reporting put roughly 3.4m TEU stuck in port queues, a four-year high, with about 10% of the global fleet waiting at anchor. North Asia is the worst bottleneck at 38% of global congestion, followed by North Europe at 13%. Carriers have responded by loading record volumes into Asia-Europe and slashing blank sailings, but the queues neutralise much of that added capacity. The week's structural signal came from the Gemini Cooperation: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on 6 July they will route the AE15 service (Asia, Mediterranean and Turkey) back through the Suez Canal and Red Sea rather than around the Cape, with the 19,000 TEU Majestic Maersk expected at Suez around 24 July. It is the pair's second attempt in 2026 to restore trans-Suez routing after an earlier return was aborted, and it remains a cautious, single-service move rather than a market-wide shift back. Looking ahead, a further round of GRIs and PSSs lands on 15 July - MSC is pushing for $7,700/FEU to both North Europe and the Med, CMA CGM for $7,000 to North Europe and up to $8,500 to the Med. Whether they hold is the key question: front-loading ahead of the 24 July US tariff deadline has lifted inbound US demand an estimated 15% month-on-month, but the first small week-on-week rate reductions suggest this peak may be at or near its ceiling.

The container market entered July in a firm, rising posture, driven less by a demand boom than by an early peak season colliding with tightening effective capacity. Transpacific spot rates extended their climb, adding roughly 8-11% over the past week to leave Shanghai-Los Angeles near $6,350/FEU (up around 120% since mid-May) and Shanghai-New York close to $7,900/FEU, now sitting above 2025's frontloading-driven summer high. Asia-Europe lanes held their gains, with North Europe around $4,900/FEU and the Mediterranean near $6,500/FEU, up 70% and 85% respectively since mid-May. The mechanism behind the strength is increasingly on the supply side. Worsening congestion at major hubs in the Far East and Northern Europe is absorbing tonnage: Shanghai and Ningbo are seeing berth delays of two to seven days on heavy seasonal volume, weather and vessel bunching, while Rotterdam and Antwerp face inland barge waits stretching toward four days. Disruption at one end of the trade lane is now feeding the other in a self-reinforcing cascade, with an estimated 3.4 million TEU of capacity idled in queues. Carriers are compounding the effect deliberately, running 31 blank sailings across the main east-west trades from week 26 to week 30 (about a 4% cancellation rate) to hold rates where they want them despite an underlying global oversupply of ships. Alliance discipline varies sharply, with Gemini cancelling just 2.8% of sailings against 15.9% to 19.9% for its rivals. On the geopolitical side, the Red Sea picture is stable but unresolved: the Bab el-Mandeb corridor remains largely bypassed, most carriers still route via the Cape of Good Hope, and only selective Suez transits by Maersk and CMA CGM have resumed, keeping the longer-mileage premium baked into rates. For shippers, the near-term signal is continued upward pressure and reduced schedule reliability through the summer peak.

The container market enters the final week of June firmly in an early peak season. Transpacific spot rates have surged on the back of June 1 general rate increases and peak-season surcharges, with US West Coast levels rising more than 50% inside two weeks and East Coast rates pushing toward the $7,000/FEU mark. The driver is demand timing rather than a structural tightening: the National Retail Federation has moved its projected peak import month forward to June as US importers frontload cargo ahead of potential tariff changes and higher bunker-related costs. Carriers are reinforcing the rate momentum with disciplined capacity management, scheduling roughly 31 blank sailings across the main East-West lanes over weeks 26 to 30, the bulk of them on the transpacific eastbound leg. That discipline is uneven, however, with the Gemini cooperation cancelling under 3% of sailings while MSC, Premier and Ocean alliances run materially higher, and underlying deployed capacity remains high enough that analysts continue to warn the rate strength may prove difficult to sustain into the third quarter. On the geopolitical axis, the slow normalisation of the Suez-Red Sea corridor remains the dominant variable for Asia-Europe routing and, indirectly, for global vessel supply. A small number of large container ships have resumed transits and a second Ocean Alliance backhaul service has returned, but the recovery is halting: Maersk has rerouted select sailings back around the Cape of Good Hope, the Houthi ban on Israeli-linked vessels still stands, and Suez throughput remains well below pre-crisis levels. Until carriers gain confidence in sustained safety, the absorbed capacity from longer Cape routings will keep a floor under the wider market even as peak-season demand does the heavy lifting on price.

The container market entered an unusually early peak season this month, and spot rates have responded sharply. Drewry's World Container Index climbed 12% to $3,969 per 40ft container in the week to 18 June, building on a 23% jump to $3,433 the week before. The gains are broad-based across both major head-haul trades. On the transpacific, Shanghai to New York rose 15% to $6,769 and Shanghai to Los Angeles added 10% to $5,142. On Asia to Europe, Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 15% to $4,342 and Shanghai to Genoa rose 12% to $5,756. Carriers implemented a fresh round of general rate increases and peak-season surcharges on 15 June, and Drewry expects further increases in the coming weeks.

The demand driver is front-loading. Shippers are pulling bookings forward ahead of US tariff changes expected in July, with additional cargo linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Linerlytica sees the momentum lasting at least through the end of July. On the supply side, carriers are managing capacity tightly: 34 blank sailings are scheduled across the main East-West trades from week 25 to week 29, a cancellation rate of about 5%. That discipline matters because June capacity is recovering from May's cuts, which on its own would make further hikes harder to land.

Geopolitics continues to underpin the tightness. After the Houthis resumed attacks in late March amid the Iran conflict, the tentative moves to return container ships to the Red Sea and Suez have largely been shelved, and the Cape of Good Hope detour remains the default. That absorbs vessel capacity and feeds into congestion at the European and Mediterranean gateways the diversion funnels traffic toward. Singapore transhipment is running near critical utilisation, Algeciras has roughly half its vessels waiting for a berth and Tanger Med about a quarter, while Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp see intermittent delays. For shippers, the practical takeaway is to book early and budget for surcharge volatility into July; a sudden large-scale Red Sea return would be the main wildcard, and would likely bring its own wave of arrival congestion in northern Europe and the Med.

Container shipping entered the second week of June 2026 with clear upward momentum on rates as an earlier-than-usual peak season took hold. Freightos reported spot rates spiking on the peak-season rush, with the FBX Asia-North Europe lane climbing 14% week on week to $3,522 per FEU, while Xeneta's XSI for the Far East to Europe sat around $3,393. The sharper story is on the Transpacific, where Xeneta estimates China to US West Coast spot rates are now roughly 84% above pre-Middle East-conflict levels, with the Far East to US East Coast up about 70% and North Europe and Mediterranean fronthauls up 44% and 40% respectively since the end of February. The demand surge is driven less by underlying consumption and more by timing: shippers are front-loading cargo ahead of anticipated US tariff changes in July, with additional volume linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Carriers have kept capacity disciplined, with blank sailings holding at around 5% of scheduled East-West departures, and Xeneta's Peter Sand has warned that worsening congestion at North European hubs such as Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp could push rates higher still. On the geopolitical side, the Red Sea remains the defining structural factor: most lines continue to default to the longer Cape of Good Hope routing, and southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb transits stay depressed at 30-35 vessels per day against a pre-disruption norm of about 70, with industry consensus expecting diversions to persist well into 2027. With longer voyages still absorbing capacity, an early peak season, and tariff-driven front-loading all converging, the market is firmly in an elevated rate environment heading into the summer.

The container market shifted into overdrive this week. Drewry's World Container Index jumped 23% to $3,433 per FEU and the SCFI climbed 155 points to 2,726 — its highest level in about two years and a fifth straight weekly increase. The transpacific led the move: Shanghai–Los Angeles spot rates rose 31% to $4,565 per FEU, while Xeneta data shows Far East–US West Coast rates have more than doubled (+109%) since the Middle East crisis began on February 28. Asia–Europe followed with Shanghai–Rotterdam up 25%. Three forces are converging: a peak season arriving roughly two months early as US importers frontload ahead of the expected late-July switch from 10% Section 122 tariffs to higher Section 301 rates; additional cargo tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup and retail restocking; and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is tying up tonnage and congesting transshipment hubs from Singapore and Port Klang to Colombo with record dwell times. Carriers are responding by restoring capacity — just three transpacific blank sailings are announced for next week, down from eight — and reliability gaps are widening, with Gemini's 2.8% cancellation rate far ahead of the other alliances. Linerlytica expects rate momentum to hold at least through late July. The wildcard remains geopolitical: with Hormuz still closed and incidents like the projectile strike on MSC Sariska V at Umm Qasr underscoring persistent risk, shippers should budget for elevated rates and longer transits well into Q3.

The container market enters June on a firmer footing than fundamentals alone would suggest. The Drewry World Container Index climbed about 3% to roughly $2,800/FEU, its fourth consecutive weekly gain, lifted by an early peak season on both the Asia–Europe and transpacific trades. Demand is being pulled forward into June ahead of an expected 1 July bunker adjustment, and carriers are reinforcing the move with aggressive commercial action: Emergency Fuel and Peak Season Surcharges of around $2,000/FEU for June, plus a fresh CMA CGM FAK from 1 June near $4,700/FEU on Asia–Europe and $5,500–5,700/FEU on Asia–Mediterranean. Headline lanes reflect the strength, with Shanghai–Genoa at $4,253/FEU and Shanghai–New York at $4,597/FEU. Yet the rally rests on management rather than demand. Xeneta notes transpacific spot rates remain more than 50% above pre-conflict (end-February) levels largely because US shippers are delaying long-term contracts amid Middle East uncertainty, forcing cargo onto the spot market. Carriers are blanking sailings at near-pandemic intensity and have cut non-alliance West Coast capacity to a decade low, even as Linerlytica warns that a record 13M TEU orderbook (38.3% of the fleet) points to a structural overcapacity overhang. Underpinning it all is geopolitics: the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked since late February, the US port blockade only wound down on 29 May, a CMA CGM vessel was attacked in transit, and lines continue to shun the Red Sea in favour of the longer Cape of Good Hope route. The net effect is an elevated, surcharge-driven market that could soften quickly once peak-season front-loading fades and idle tonnage returns.

The container market enters the final week of May with a clear tension between geopolitics and fundamentals. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to box shipping for a third consecutive month, and Washington's decision this week to pause a planned strike on Iran in favour of talks has stabilised — but not de-escalated — the situation. With Cape-of-Good-Hope routings still the norm and bunker costs running hot, mid-May GRIs from Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and Yang Ming have started to bite: Asia–North Europe FAK is now anchored at $3,500/40ft and West Med at $4,500/40ft, while a $2,000/FEU transpacific GRI took effect on 15 May. Spot levels reflect a split market — Asia–Mediterranean firmed 3% week-on-week to roughly $3,600/FEU, Asia–North Europe eased 2% to about $2,800/FEU, and the transpacific plateaued at ~$2,800/FEU (USWC) and ~$4,300/FEU (USEC), although daily prints turned higher into the back end of the week. The bigger story is that European importers appear to be pulling the peak season forward, ordering earlier than usual to ensure cargo lands ahead of Golden Week given the longer Cape transit; carriers including Yang Ming have publicly flagged the early uptick. Capacity discipline is doing most of the heavy lifting: effective Asia–N. Europe capacity is down 3% month-on-month and Asia–Med down 10% on blanked sailings, with seven blanks already booked on the transpacific for the coming week. Carriers are now reaching for the next leg — MSC and peers have announced June FAK lifts of roughly $2,000/FEU on Far East–NWC/Med/Black Sea, though most analysts doubt the full increase will hold given persistent overcapacity (fleet growth ~3.6% vs demand ~3% in 2026). On the trade-war front the tone has softened: the Trump–Xi summit appears to have had a stabilising effect, with China reopening access for 425 US beef plants, both sides agreeing to stand up bilateral trade and investment bodies, and the EU racing to finalise its US trade deal ahead of the July White House deadline. For shippers the playbook into June is unchanged — secure space early, expect surcharge layering, and plan around schedule volatility rather than headline rate moves.

Five weeks after the late-February US/Israel-Iran war erupted, the container market has settled into an uneasy plateau. Average Far East spot rates are flat month-on-month but anchored more than 50% above pre-conflict levels on the transpacific, with Far East to US West Coast at $2,884/FEU and US East Coast at $3,974/FEU on 13 May (Xeneta). Asia-North Europe sits at $2,531/FEU and Asia-Mediterranean at $3,451/FEU - the Mediterranean lane has now largely unwound its Hormuz spike and is only 4% above pre-crisis. The driver is not demand strength but capacity discipline: Linerlytica notes a string of blank sailings clustered around the May Day holiday, with effective capacity down roughly 25% on the transpacific that week, and Drewry sees capacity reductions of 3% MoM on Asia-North Europe and 10% MoM on Asia-Med for May overall. Premier Alliance's transpacific reshuffle and slot-sharing arrangements continue to absorb supply, while Gemini Cooperation maintains its reliability lead (0.9-day average delay vs 5.9 for Premier earlier in the year). The Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant macro risk: Iran's blockade has held since 28 February, only 191 vessels transited in April (vs ~3,000 normally), and as of 8 May more than 1,550 ships with 22,500 mariners are stranded in the region. The UK has now joined the international defensive mission, but 'Project Freedom' escorts are paused amid renewed diplomacy. Hapag-Lloyd alone puts the cost of the disruption at $60m per week. Bunker prices have roughly doubled at major hubs, and all top-five carriers have Emergency Fuel Surcharges live. Red Sea remains a binary trigger - Houthi threats to retaliate against the Iran strikes hang over the route, but Maersk's ME11 service is back via Suez and east-west canal share has climbed to 18.7%. Looking past the headlines, BIMCO's 2026 framework (fleet +3.0% vs demand +2.5-3.5%) is the gravity that ultimately reasserts itself. A Red Sea normalisation would erase up to 10% of effective ship demand; combined with falling long-term contract rates (N. Europe $2,010/FEU, Med $2,308/FEU - down ~25% from late 2025), the gradual softening trajectory Xeneta has flagged remains the base case into the summer peak.

Week 19 closed with the Strait of Hormuz crisis entering its tenth week and the partial reopening already under strain. After Iran's IRGC navy declared the waterway safe and the US paused offensive operations, a Qatari LNG carrier transited toward Pakistan and a Maersk-operated boxship made the passage under US Navy escort, the first significant container movements through the strait in weeks. Optimism was short-lived: on 5 May the Maltese-flagged CMA CGM San Antonio was struck during transit, injuring eight crew and reinforcing the IMO tally of 32 incidents since hostilities began. Two days later Iranian forces and US destroyers exchanged fire after a US strike on an Iranian tanker, leaving roughly 2,000 ships still queued in the Gulf and war-risk insurance pricing 15-20 times pre-war levels. The container market is digesting two opposing forces. On Asia-Europe, spot rates have unwound the war premium and now sit at pre-conflict levels, with FBX Asia-North Europe down 3% to about $2,700/FEU and only Asia-Mediterranean still elevated near $3,850/FEU. Carriers are responding with disciplined capacity withdrawal: Drewry estimates May effective capacity down 3% on Asia-North Europe and 10% on Asia-Mediterranean, while a wave of Gulf service suspensions by major lines is shifting Middle East cargo onto Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Salalah landbridges. On the transpacific, the picture is firmer; FBX Asia-US East Coast jumped 10% week-on-week to $3,069/FEU and West Coast added 2% to $2,127/FEU, lifting the Drewry composite WCI 3% to $2,286/FEU as US importers front-load ahead of any further escalation. Beneath the headline rates, schedule reliability remains the dominant concern, the Red Sea has not reopened in any meaningful sense (Bab el-Mandeb still 45% below 2023 volumes), and the 2026 supply-demand gap of roughly 60 basis points means any easing of the geopolitical risk premium would expose carriers to renewed rate pressure very quickly.

Der globale Containermarkt zeigt in der ersten Maiwoche 2026 ein zweigeteiltes Bild. Während die Transpazifik-Routen Auftrieb erhalten — Asia → US East Coast +10%, West Coast +2% laut FBX — gibt der Asia-Europa-Korridor weiter nach (Nordeuropa -3%, Mediterranean +7% leicht erholt). Der Drewry World Container Index fällt zum dritten Mal in Folge auf $2.216/FEU. Treiber der Transpazifik-Stärke sind kriegsgetriebene Frontloading-Effekte sowie ab 1. Mai eingeführte Emergency Fuel Surcharges und Peak Season Surcharges — CMA CGM allein mit $2.000 PSS. Gleichzeitig steigt die effektive Kapazität auf den USEC-Routen laut Drewry um 11% gegenüber April, was die Rate-Erholung mittelfristig deckeln dürfte.

Die Strait-of-Hormuz-Krise bleibt der dominante geopolitische Joker: Die US-Operation 'Project Freedom' zur Eskorte gestrandeter Schiffe wurde Anfang Mai pausiert, ein Maersk-Containerschiff transitierte unter Marineschutz, ein französischer CMA-CGM-Frachter wurde am 5. Mai beschossen. Prediction-Market-Trader auf Kalshi rechnen frühestens für August/September mit normalem Verkehr; das Pentagon spricht von sechs Monaten Minenräumung. Im Roten Meer bleibt der Suez-Verkehr trotz 100 Tagen ohne Houthi-Angriff rund 60% unter Vorkrisenniveau — CMA CGM hat FAL1/FAL3/MEX wieder auf die Kap-Route zurückverlegt. Strukturell überlagert der Orderbuch-Überhang von rd. 10 Mio. TEU (≈ ein Drittel der aktiven Flotte) das gesamte Marktbild und zwingt Carrier zu aggressivem Capacity-Management aus Blank Sailings, Idling und Slow Steaming.

Five weeks after the US-Iran ceasefire was declared on April 7, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping. Iran's Revolutionary Guard captured two foreign container ships on April 22 attempting to exit the strait without authorization, and fired on a third — the latest escalation under a dual-control regime where Tehran approves exits and the US Navy blockade controls entries. Only around five vessels per day are transiting, a fraction of the 100-plus daily pre-war norm. While the immediate panic-driven rate spikes have subsided and Far East–Europe spot rates are easing 6–13% month-on-month as alternative routing via the Cape of Good Hope, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Jeddah stabilizes, underlying drivers of disruption persist: longer transit times, schedule reliability at multi-year lows, congestion at alternative hubs, and elevated war-risk premiums (double-digit millions of USD per trip for high-risk flags). With 40-plus boxships still stuck in the Gulf, BIMCO and Linerlytica both flag a worsening structural picture: fleet has grown 7% YoY to 33.5m TEU, the orderbook stands at a record 11.7m TEU, and overcapacity is forecast at 19% in 2026 — meaning any easing of the geopolitical premium will quickly expose carriers to renewed rate pressure.

The week of April 14–17 brought a new pressure point to an already strained global container market: surcharges on Transatlantic trade lanes took effect, triggering a 25% month-over-month spike in Rotterdam–New York rates to $1,968/FEU. This move — unusual in its magnitude for a trade lane typically insulated from Middle East disruptions — reflects how the Hormuz crisis is now cascading across every major East-West corridor, not just those with direct route exposure. The US further escalated pressure on Iran this week by expanding its maritime blockade with global boarding powers and a broad 'contraband' crackdown, keeping commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a mere ~16 vessels per day versus a pre-war average of 135. The brief ceasefire of early April has yielded no meaningful normalization of traffic flows.

On the Transpacific, spot rates defy the absence of direct regional exposure, climbing 3–10% week-on-week depending on coast, driven by shipper anxiety and a rush to front-load cargo ahead of further US tariff escalations. Carriers are simultaneously navigating a separate strategic pressure: fleet reshuffling ahead of USTR port fees on Chinese-built vessels. The Premier Alliance split its MS2 transatlantic service into two discrete loops this week, enabling ONE to redeploy 10 Chinese-built ships away from US calls — a move that tightens available capacity and further supports elevated rate levels.

Bunker fuel costs, while beginning to ease from their initial 200% post-crisis spike, remain roughly double pre-crisis levels in Singapore, creating a durable floor under freight rates. Schedule reliability globally holds at a precarious 27%. The structural overcapacity that defined the market entering 2026 (3.6% fleet growth vs. 3.0% demand) is now effectively masked by rerouting inefficiencies, fleet displacement, and blank sailing strategies — leaving shippers facing a market that looks tight despite an oversupplied fleet on paper.

The LCL market kept climbing in the week to 16 July, but the engine changed. The six-consolidator panel averaged $129.24/W-M, up from $124.40, a 3.9 percent gain that eased off the prior week's 4.7 percent. What stands out is not the slightly slower headline but the rotation beneath it. For a month the transpacific had led every move; this week Asia to Europe took over. Europe-weighted Greencarrier led the panel at plus 5.0 percent and SACO followed at plus 4.8 percent, while transpacific-weighted Teamglobal slowed to plus 2.8 percent, the first clear sign that the transpacific leg of the peak may be topping out even as the European leg accelerates.

The benchmarks tell the same story. Drewry's World Container Index rose 2 percent to $4,639 per 40ft, its highest since September 2024, and Drewry attributed the gain specifically to Asia to Europe: Shanghai to Rotterdam jumped 5 percent to $4,933 and Shanghai to Genoa rose 2 percent to $6,463, while the transpacific flattened, with Shanghai to Los Angeles up just 2 percent and Shanghai to New York unchanged. The Freightos Baltic Index was sharper still for the week of 15 July, putting Asia to North Europe up 10 percent to around $5,400/FEU and Asia to the Mediterranean up 11 percent to above $7,000/FEU, both ahead of the US coasts at plus 8 percent, with a further roughly $2,000/FEU of increases slated mid-July on the Europe trades. Carriers filed transpacific GRIs of $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft for 15 July and HMM set a $3,000 per 40ft transpacific peak-season surcharge, keeping the EBS component near $24.50/W-M. On the risk side, the war-risk component held firm at about $13.75/W-M after the Middle East ceasefire broke down, with hull war-risk premiums settling near 5 percent of vessel value, three vessels attacked in the week, and the IMO advising ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz until crew safety can be assured.

Outlook: the near-term bias stays upward, but the shape of the risk is changing. The transpacific looks closer to its ceiling, with early-July frontloading having pulled demand forward and carriers now testing how much peak is left through mid-July GRIs; a stall there would drag the panel average even as Europe keeps rising. The Asia to Europe trades have more room to run in the short term on strong FAK filings and the queued mid-July increases, so Europe-weighted cargo should be booked early. The war-risk premium is not fading: with the ceasefire broken and an IMO advisory in place, any fresh incident in the Gulf would push the component higher rather than lower. Shippers should book European cargo ahead of the mid-July stack, expect transpacific to plateau rather than fall sharply, and keep treating Hormuz de-escalation as an upside case to watch, not a base case to plan around.

The LCL market accelerated in the week to 8 July, and for the first time in a month both of its main cost drivers pushed the same way. The six-consolidator panel averaged $124.40/W-M, up from $118.85, a 4.7 percent gain that ran ahead of the prior week's 3.5 percent. The re-acceleration came from a war-risk narrative that flipped. Markets had entered July expecting the Strait of Hormuz reopening to unwind the insurance premium, but the reopening stalled: commercial transit was still running at roughly 32 percent of pre-crisis volume in early July, war-risk insurance held near eight times pre-crisis levels, and the US government directed the DFC to stand up a reinsurance facility of up to $40 billion to keep cover in the market. The War Risk component embedded in LCL pricing firmed back to about $13.50/W-M from $11.00 a week earlier.

Peak-season demand and the July surcharge calendar supplied the second push. Drewry's World Container Index rose 9 percent to $4,530 per 40ft, its highest of the cycle, concentrated in the transpacific, where Shanghai to Los Angeles gained 10 percent and Shanghai to New York 11 percent, and eight transpacific blank sailings were announced for the following week. Xeneta put the Far East to US West Coast spot rate at $6,639/FEU, about 253 percent above the late-February pre-crisis level, with offered West Coast capacity at an all-time high. On the fuel side, bunker surcharges of around $500 per FEU entered July pricing, contracted shippers absorbed a roughly 80 percent quarterly BAF increase, and CMA CGM set a $4,000 per FEU peak-season surcharge on all transpacific containers from 10 July, lifting the EBS component to about $24.00/W-M. That flowed straight into the panel, where transpacific-weighted Teamglobal led at plus 6.0 percent and Europe-weighted Greencarrier lagged at plus 3.8 percent.

Outlook: the near-term bias stays firmly upward, and the balance of risk has shifted back toward the upside. With the Hormuz corridor still unverified for mines and a mine-free lane estimated to take around two months to certify, the war-risk component is unlikely to retreat quickly, and a fresh incident would spike it. At the same time, frontloading ahead of the July surcharge stack and the US tariff timeline is keeping transpacific capacity tight and Southeast Asian transshipment hubs congested. Shippers should book transpacific cargo early while space is scarce, budget for the full July surcharge stack rather than assume relief, and treat any Hormuz de-escalation as an upside case to watch rather than a base case to plan around.

The LCL market extended its climb in the week to 1 July, but the character of the move changed. The six-consolidator panel averaged $118.85/W-M, up from $114.87 a week earlier, a 3.5 percent gain that ran at less than half the prior week's 8.2 percent pace. The composition of the rise tells the story: with the acute Strait of Hormuz war-risk shock beginning to unwind, peak-season demand has taken over as the primary driver. Drewry's World Container Index rose 5 percent to $4,166 per 40ft, its highest since September 2024, but the strength was concentrated in the transpacific, where Shanghai to Los Angeles jumped 12 percent and Shanghai to New York rose 6 percent, while Asia to Europe was essentially flat. That split flowed straight into the LCL panel, where transpacific-weighted Teamglobal led at plus 4.0 percent and Europe-weighted Greencarrier lagged at plus 3.0 percent.

The surcharge picture is now pulling in two directions. On the war-risk side, Iran and the United States signed the Islamabad MOU, providing for a toll-free 60-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian mine clearance within 30 days, and the US-led Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the Hormuz threat level from SEVERE to SUBSTANTIAL, the first downgrade since the crisis began. War-risk insurance remains well above pre-crisis norms but has started to retreat, and the War Risk component embedded in LCL pricing eased to about $11.00/W-M from $13.50 a week earlier. Pushing the other way, carriers applied a 1 July BAF increase of roughly $300 to $400 per FEU and a new peak-season surcharge of about $2,000 per FEU, lifting the EBS component to around $22.50/W-M. Freightos put transpacific spot rates up 8 percent on the week, to about $6,200/FEU to the West Coast and $8,000/FEU to the East Coast, while Asia to North Europe rose only 3 percent and the Mediterranean 2 percent.

Outlook: the near-term bias stays upward, but the driver has rotated from geopolitics to demand and fuel. Frontloading ahead of the July BAF hikes and the approaching US tariff deadline is stretching transpacific capacity and congesting Southeast Asian transshipment hubs, which should keep US-bound LCL rates firm into Q3. The Hormuz de-escalation is a genuine downside risk to the war-risk component if the 60-day reopening holds and mine clearance proceeds, though a relapse would reverse that quickly. Shippers should book transpacific cargo early while capacity is tight, treat the July surcharge stack rather than war-risk as the main cost variable this month, and watch whether the Hormuz truce converts into sustained relief on insurance-linked charges.

The LCL market broke out of its mid-June plateau and moved sharply higher in the week to 24 June, as a fresh war-risk shock met an already tight peak-season market. The six-consolidator panel averaged $114.87/W-M, up from $106.19 a week earlier, an 8.2 percent gain that more than doubled the prior week's pace. Every operator rose between 7.5 and 9.0 percent, with Teamglobal and Greencarrier again at the front. The catalyst was twofold: Drewry's World Container Index jumped 12 percent to $3,969 per 40ft in the week to 18 June, with Transpacific and Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean both up 13 percent, and Iran's armed forces declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels effective 11 June, hardening a crisis that had been simmering since the 28 February escalation.

The surcharge picture is now the dominant driver. War-risk insurance for the strait has surged to roughly 4 percent of hull value for a seven-day transit, on the order of 4,000 times pre-crisis levels, and the War Risk component embedded in LCL pricing rose to about $13.50/W-M. On top of that, carriers are stacking mid-month general rate increases and peak-season surcharges: Asia to Europe daily spot rates climbed about 10 percent on the week, mid-month increases of $1,000 to $2,000 per FEU are being applied, and CMA CGM has announced a $4,000/FEU transpacific PSS effective 10 July. Vessels are reported fully booked through month-end, with carriers rolling containers and trimming allocations to defend the higher levels. The EBS component ticked up to around $20.40/W-M on flagged BAF increases, but fuel remains secondary to war-risk and demand.

Outlook: with Hormuz declared closed, Red Sea diversions still in force via the Cape of Good Hope, and July surcharges already announced, the near-term bias is firmly upward and the risk of further step-changes is elevated. The clearest downside risk to surcharges would be a credible de-escalation in the Gulf paired with Suez normalisation, neither of which appears imminent. Shippers should book as early in the cycle as possible while capacity stays tight, build in longer transit allowances around the Cape, and expect war-risk and peak-season components to remain the swing factor in total LCL cost through July.

The LCL market entered mid-June on a clear upward track, mirroring a full-container market that has surprised to the upside. Drewry's World Container Index climbed 3% to $3,549 per 40ft in the week to 11 June, building on a 23% jump the week before, as carriers and consolidators confirmed an unusually early start to peak season. Demand is being pulled forward by shippers frontloading ahead of Q3, tight equipment availability in Asia, and lingering Mediterranean port congestion. For LCL shippers, this translated into a six-consolidator average of $104.33/W-M, with every operator on the panel reporting a week-over-week increase.

The surcharge picture is mixed. The Emergency Bunker Surcharge held broadly steady near $18.50/W-M, supported by Rotterdam VLSFO around $689 per tonne including EU-ETS, up roughly 4.2% on the year. War Risk eased to about $7.25/W-M as Red Sea diversions slowly unwind and a gradual return to the Suez Canal takes shape, though carriers remain cautious about committing capacity back through the corridor. By lane, Asia to Mediterranean (+7.2%) and Asia to US East Coast (+6.9%) saw the steepest moves, while Asia to US West Coast (+4.8%) lagged as transpacific gains concentrated on the East Coast.

Outlook: with peak season running early and bunker costs structurally higher year on year, the near-term bias for LCL rates remains upward into July. A faster normalisation of Suez routing is the main downside risk to surcharges, but base ocean and CFS handling costs look set to stay firm while demand holds. Shippers with flexible timing should weigh booking earlier in the cycle.

The LCL market entered June 2026 on a firming note, with the average surcharge load across the six tracked consolidators rising to $89.92/W-M. The increase was driven by two reinforcing forces: an Emergency Bunker Surcharge of $52.00/W-M reflecting firmer fuel costs and the longer diversion mileage still in effect, and a War Risk component of $37.92/W-M that has remained structurally elevated as the Strait of Hormuz closure neared its hundredth day. Asia-origin consolidations continue to carry the bulk of this risk premium.

Upward pressure was visible across the consolidator panel, with Shipco (+3.5%) and ECU (+3.2%) leading and Greencarrier (+1.5%) holding the line most tightly. The move mirrors the broader spot market, where early peak-season demand has begun to pull rates higher on east-west lanes — Asia → US East Coast led the four core LCL tradelanes at +4.0%, followed by Asia → North Europe at +3.0%, while Asia → Mediterranean and Asia → US West Coast each posted a more modest +1.0%.

The near-term trend is rising, but the medium-term outlook tilts softer. A controlled, stepwise reopening of the Red Sea corridor is expected to release significant capacity into H2 2026, and with nominal fleet growth still arriving, overcapacity remains the structural story for the year. The key swing factors to watch are the duration of the Hormuz disruption, the pace of Red Sea schedule normalization, and whether North Europe port congestion eases before the main peak-season volumes land.

The LCL market entered the final week of May in a holding pattern, with consolidator surcharge baskets remaining in a tight $38.50–$43.80 per W-M corridor and a market average of $41.46. The picture is one of two opposing forces in balance: softening base ocean rates on the Asia–Europe corridors are pulling pricing lower, while the persistence of war-risk and emergency-bunker surcharges introduced after the March Strait-of-Hormuz escalation keeps the all-in LCL number elevated against historic norms. Xeneta's latest data shows Far East to North Europe spot at $2,531/FEU (–8% month-on-month) and Far East to Mediterranean at $3,451/FEU (–12%), and feeder LCL rates have followed with measured 2–3% week-on-week declines on those lanes.

The transpacific tells a different story. Both Asia–US West Coast and East Coast LCL benchmarks ticked higher this week (+1.5% and +0.8% respectively) as shippers begin front-loading ahead of the traditional Q3 peak-season surcharge cycle and as US importers rebuild inventories drawn down through April. The Vanguard Logistics rollout of its new Vanguard Fuel Surcharge (VFS) — which consolidates and replaces several legacy bunker line-items — is visible in this week's snapshot as a 0.9% WoW uptick in its surcharge total, even though the underlying fuel exposure is roughly unchanged.

Outlook for early June points to continued stability on the surcharge side: carriers have signaled that Gulf war-risk premiums and EFS levies will remain in force through the summer absent a meaningful de-escalation. Base rates, by contrast, are likely to keep softening on Asia–Europe through mid-June before the typical pre-peak firming begins. Shippers locked into index-linked LCL contracts should watch for the double-recovery risk flagged by Container Magazine in March, where stacked emergency surcharges can be charged on top of already-indexed base rates.

The LCL market entered the final week of May 2026 in a notably stable pattern, with the six-consolidator average holding at $88.45 per W/M. Asia-Europe lanes are showing modest upward pressure as carriers announce June 1 General Rate Increases and consolidators reprice ahead of the traditional peak shipping window opening in June. Greencarrier and Shipco moved early, lifting Asia-Mediterranean LCL rates by 0.9-1.2% week-over-week, while ECU held a disciplined +0.6% adjustment on its XLERATE 2.0 service network.

The Trans-Pacific picture remains softer. Both LCL benchmarks to the US East and West Coasts continued their multi-week slide, with USWC LCL down 1.4% and USEC LCL down 0.9% — closely tracking the underlying FCL spot decline that has Shanghai-LA at roughly $2,675/FEU and Shanghai-NY at $3,939/FEU. Persistent overcapacity from 2025 newbuilding deliveries, combined with subdued US import demand and tariff-related front-loading already behind us, is keeping a lid on pricing despite the seasonal calendar pushing higher.

Surcharge components remain well-behaved. EBS softened to $19.80 on stable VLSFO bunker prices, while the War Risk component held at $9.50 as Maersk's MECL1 service and others continue phased Red Sea reactivation under reduced insurance premiums. With June 1 GRIs imminent and Asia factories pushing pre-Golden Week and pre-Christmas inventory, expect the next 2-4 weeks to determine whether the market shifts from 'stable' to 'rising'. Shippers locking annual LCL volumes should consider fixing Asia-Europe contracts now while spot remains soft.

The LCL market entered the second week of May in a classic mid-quarter posture: an off-peak demand backdrop holding spot rates in check, but a steady drumbeat of Emergency Bunker Surcharge revisions from the underlying ocean carriers gradually re-pricing the consolidator surcharge stack. Swire Shipping's EBS revision became effective Tuesday, 12 May 2026, following the broader Maersk EBS round of 25 March ($200 per 20ft, $400 per 40ft on long-haul headhaul trades). All six tracked consolidators reflected the pass-through this week, with the EBS+WR composite averaging $18.38/W-M, up modestly from last week's range.

The divergence between Europe-bound and US-bound tradelanes remains the defining feature of the broader ocean market and is now visible in LCL too. Xeneta's late-April benchmarks showed Far East–North Europe spot at $2,528/FEU (down roughly 10% month-on-month) and Mediterranean at $3,567/FEU (down 15% MoM) as capacity adaptation and seasonal softening let rates ease meaningfully; LCL equivalents tracked lower for the second consecutive week at $48.20/W-M (–2.5%) and $68.40/W-M (–3.1%) respectively. On the transpacific, the picture inverted: Asia–USEC spot LCL climbed to $118.00/W-M (+4.2% WoW) and Asia–USWC to $72.50/W-M (+3.5%), mirroring the 19% and 22% month-on-month FCL gains reported by Xeneta.

Outlook for the next 7–14 days: with no consolidator showing a single-week move above the 5% threshold and WR effectively static, the market remains in the 'normal' band — but rising. We expect EBS components to stay firm through end-May as the Swire revision works through downstream tariffs and bunker prices continue to set the tone. Shippers tendering long-term contracts should treat the current off-peak window as a structural opportunity rather than a sustainable floor, particularly on transpacific lanes where carrier discipline and surcharge pass-through remain the dominant pricing levers heading into Q3.

Der LCL-Markt zeigt sich in der ersten Mai-Woche 2026 zweigeteilt: Auf den Asien-Europa-Korridoren setzt sich die saisonale Q2-Abkühlung fort. Xeneta meldet zur Woche bis 30. April einen Rückgang der Far-East-North-Europe-Spotraten um 10% auf $2,528/FEU; Mediterranean liegt 15% unter Vormonat. Kapazitätszuwachs nach Nordeuropa von 7,6% week-over-week beschleunigt diese Entwicklung. Die sechs aktiven Consolidators (ECU, SACO, Greencarrier, Teamglobal, Shipco, Vanguard) zeigen geringfügig rückläufige bis seitwärts laufende Surcharge-Niveaus mit Wochenveränderungen meist unter 2% — ein Indiz für die Stabilisierungsphase.

Auf dem Transpazifikkorridor zeichnet sich ein gegenläufiges Bild ab: FBX-Daten signalisieren ein Festigen der Asia-USWC-Tarife, während Asia-USEC um 3% zurückging. Der per 12. Mai 2026 wirksame Swire-EBS-Aufschlag und die Crowley-Anpassung des Emergency Fuel Recovery Surcharge zum 17. Mai signalisieren erneut steigenden Bunkerkostendruck — relevant für Shipco und Vanguard, die einen US-Schwerpunkt haben. Vanguard hat zudem den neuen Vanguard Fuel Surcharge (VFS) eingeführt.

Für Verlader heißt das: kurzfristige Spot-Buchungen Asien-Europa profitieren weiterhin vom Soft Q2-Bias, während Transpazifik-Sendungen vor der Pre-Peak-Season-Fenster im Juni eingebucht werden sollten. War-Risk-Komponenten haben sich auf $50–100 pro TEU eingependelt; ein Wiederaufflammen der Houthi-Aktivitäten oder eine Hormuz-Eskalation würde diese Komponente sofort verteuern — die Cape-of-Good-Hope-Routenführung bleibt für die meisten LCL-Consolidators Standard und limitiert Sensitivität gegenüber Red-Sea-Schocks.

The LCL market entered the final week of April 2026 with a clear softening tone across all major Asia-outbound lanes, even as elevated surcharge structures keep total rates well above pre-Hormuz levels. Drewry's World Container Index has now declined for two consecutive weeks (-1% to $2,232/40ft on April 23), and Xeneta's Asia–North Europe and Asia–Mediterranean benchmarks are off 6% and 13% respectively versus one month ago. For LCL consolidators, this base-rate softening is partially offset by sticky EBS and War Risk components that were imposed industry-wide in March following the Strait of Hormuz closure and have not been rolled back.

Among the six tracked consolidators, Greencarrier and Shipco continue to price at the top of the band ($110–$112/W-M), reflecting their stronger Europe-direct service mix and exposure to the Mediterranean lane that remains structurally elevated. Teamglobal is the only consolidator showing a slight uptick (+0.3% W/W), driven by tightening capacity out of Indian gateways. ECU, SACO, and Vanguard all sit between $103 and $109/W-M with modest week-over-week declines, broadly tracking the FCL benchmark moves.

The outlook is volatile: most major carriers have pre-announced a Peak Season Surcharge of approximately $2,000/40ft FCL effective 1 May, which historically translates into a 5–8% LCL uplift within two weeks of implementation. Combined with the unchanged WR/EBS regime and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz, BCOs should expect rates to bottom this week before pushing back up through mid-May. Lane selection matters more than ever — Mediterranean and US East Coast routings carry the steepest surcharge stack, while West Coast remains the most cost-efficient transpacific entry point at $128.60/W-M.